Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Explains Why He Hiked Rates Into Stagflation The FOMC just (unanimously) hiked rates for the first time since July 2023 despite recent inflation prints slowing… Additionally, recent macro surprises are clearly signaling stagflation – the central banker’s nemesis… So, a hike for credibility… but Warsh’s biggest challenge will be communicating his outlook without reverting to forward […]

Fed Hikes Rates For First Time Since July 2023, Signals 1 More Hike In 2026 Tl;dr: As the market expected, The Fed hiked rates by 25bps (for the first time since July 2023) despite a trend lower in CPI over the last three months. Today’s decision was unanimous and the ‘Dots’ signal one more hike in 2026. The Fed members increased their GDP outlooks, lowered their unemployment forecasts, but hiked their inflation outlooks… The […]

DOJ Accuses Russian Intel Ring Of Plotting Murder On American Soil In something that sounds straight from the plot of “Homeland” or the more recent CIA thriller “Lioness”, the Trump administration has charged multiple members of Russia’s intelligence services with running a “global assassination network” that targeted Kremlin critics. The Department of Justice has newly revealed and alleged that one murder plot even took place on […]

Democrats Still Don’t Know How To Read Charts Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media, Democrats can be unintentionally hilarious sometimes. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) reposted a chart on X Tuesday claiming housing prices are “the most unaffordable in history,” and that it was Trump’s fault. There was just one huge problem. Great work, @realDonaldTrump! — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) September 15, 2026 The chart Newsom […]

Two Robinhood Engineers Accused Of Making $50,000 By Front-Running Crypto Listings Federal prosecutors have accused two former Robinhood engineers of turning their access to the company’s crypto plans into personal trades, according to Bloomberg. Hefu Chai, 36, and Huaisong Xiang, 30, are accused of learning in advance which digital assets Robinhood intended to add to its platform. Rather than simply keeping that information […]

FBI Agent Wanted To Criminally Investigate Elon Musk, Email Shows Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times, An FBI agent pitched investigating Elon Musk for his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), according to an email released on Sept. 15. FBI agent Kevin Gounaud wrote in the Feb. 22, 2025, missive to a supervisor that he wanted to recommend opening a criminal investigation into the person or people […]

Apollo Puts A Multi-Trillion-Dollar Price Tag On America’s Industrial Comeback Apollo’s head of thematic investing, Rob Bittencourt, says US reindustrialization is already “underway,” driven by efforts to reshore critical supply chains, rebuild domestic industrial capacity, expand data centers, restart the rearmament cycle, and power up the grid for the next evolution of the modern economy.  Rebuilding the industrial base […]

Crude Slides On Report Saudis Could Restore Half Of East-West Pipeline Flows Within Days WTI futures fell to $101 a barrel around midday in New York after Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia could restore roughly half the East-West pipeline’s capacity within days. The pipeline, a critical export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, has been shut since last week’s drone attack. The outlet reported: State-run Saudi Aramco is […]

Ahead Of The Fed: Bessent, Bullion, Bans, & Hawkish Bias Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, Before jumping into the Fed, let’s just spend another minute on diesel, and Bessent’s “Performance” which along with Warsh’s Difficult Task, were formed the bulk of last weekend’s Never Forgotten! And Some Work Stuff… Bessent’s “Performance” & Bullion On the Treasury buyback, we didn’t even get to […]

Zuck Torches Dario’s AI Nanny State, Wants ‘Trust Us Bro’ Instead After Anthropic’s Dario Amodei set off a firestorm on Saturday calling for a ‘pause’ in AI development until hand-picked arbiters are installed inside the frontier labs (a gift to Beijing), Mark Zuckerberg sided with the testosterone wing of the tech-bro complex with a builder’s response: police yourselves. You don’t need anyone’s permission – or a cartel, to do it. […]

Barclays Warns Potential US Diesel Export Ban Could Backfire Senate Majority Leader John Thune revived discussion of a potential US diesel export ban with reporters Tuesday, a day after Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said any export halts on crude or petroleum products were unlikely to lower consumer prices. The divergence in messaging suggests growing pressure across the Trump administration to contain surging fuel costs ahead of […]

Houthis Issue Video Of Saudi F-15 Shootdown, As Ground Clashes Intensify In Yemen Update(1135ET): The Houthis have released new footage which appears to confirm the earlier Saudi F-15 jet shootdown, with aircraft falling in the Marib area. The footage shows militants celebrating near the wreckage. Below is the clip as released by Ansar Allah officials, which has since been given confirmation by some foreign and international […]

What If Warsh Shocks The Market And Keeps Rates On Hold Ahead of today’s FOMC announcement at 2pm, the prevailing consensus is that Warsh will raise rates but he doesn’t need to, as tariff inflation is now fading fast, the bulk of headline inflation is driven by one-time supply shocks from the Iran war which the Fed is powerless to fix, and the upcoming change to the PCE methodology will trim the YoY print by about 0.3%, suggesting […]

EU Opens Door For Canada To Become Bloc’s First-Ever “Associate Member” Thanks to how mean President Trump has been, Canada could become the first-ever “associate member” of the European Union under a proposal unveiled Wednesday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, as Ottawa looks to reduce its economic dependence on the United States. Speaking during her annual State of the Union address in Strasbourg, with […]

House Votes To Pass Iran War Powers Resolution Authored by Timothy Frudd via The Epoch Times, The House of Representatives voted on Sept. 15 to pass a war powers resolution that calls for President Donald Trump to end U.S. military action against Iran. Following a floor debate on a war powers resolution aimed at directing Trump to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran without congressional authorization, the House […]

WTI Holds Losses As Crude Production Hits Record High, SPR/Cushing Near ‘Tank Bottoms’ Distillates have gone vertical again and physical markets remain incredibly tight, according to Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky. Saudi’s East-West pipeline disruption forced the suspension of Yanbu loadings and cancellation of some European cargoes, with European physical crude trading north of $130 in places yesterday. Despite all that, there […]

SK Hynix Explores First US Memory Chip Production With Intel Intel’s unfinished Ohio manufacturing buildout could wind up getting an unexpected tenant: SK Hynix, according to Reuters. The Korean memory giant is exploring several ways to establish chip production in the United States, including a possible arrangement involving Intel’s Ohio facilities. One concept would give SK Hynix access to unused factory capacity there. A […]

Pivots By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank The situation in the Middle East remains on an escalatory path, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia now a regular event. Attacks have already damaged the east-west pipeline, which allowed Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The damage to the pipeline increases Iran’s leverage. It forces Saudi Arabia to pivot back to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. […]

Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Russia Weighs Longer Export Ban, US Eyes Its Own Diesel futures and refining spreads climbed to record highs as worsening supply disruptions in the Gulf and Russia tightened availability of the industrial fuel that powers the global economy. Potential export restrictions, or at least extending risk, are compounding the squeeze: Moscow is reportedly considering extending its diesel export […]

Rep. Mace Demands Public Execution For Lindsay Clancy Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News, Speaking to TMZ DC on Monday, the South Carolina Republican called Clancy a “serial killer” and demanded the death penalty as a public spectacle. “Her children are dead. She should be dead too,” she said. “She should get the death penalty. It should be public. It should be a public execution.” I didn’t know you could bleep the […]

WTF Chart Of The Day: Retail Sales Record High, Consumer Sentiment Record Low Following last month’s ugly decline (“see the consumer is getting crushed because of Trump”), August’s retail sales is expected to rebound strongly (“see, Trump’s war is causing Americans to spend more on gas and less on Louboutin shoes”). BofA’s omniscient analysts agree with consensus, seeing a 0.8% MoM jump… Quick reality check – July retail sales […]

Futures Rise, Oil And Yields Dip Ahead Of First Fed Hike In Three Years Futures are higher into Fed Day where consensus is for a 25bp hike, the first since July 2023, with unknown levels of communication, and the question is what the dot plot shows (see preview here). S&P 500 futures are up by 0.3%, finding relief after days of selling as traders wait Kevin Warsh to deliver an expected interest-rate hike that will help ease […]

Hormuz: Rare US Strike On Iranian ‘Small Boats’ Caught Trying To Seize Surface Drone President Trump and the Iranians have been issuing competing claims over who has ‘control’ over the Strait of Hormuz and the degree to which it is ‘open’ to global energy transit. The situation on the ground remains dire, given almost daily hostile confrontations between Iranian and US naval forces there. According to the latest: “The U.S. military […]

NATO’s ‘Collective Defense’ Rhetoric Escalates Amid Now Weekly Aerial Incursions Ukraine war spillover into NATO ‘eastern flank’ members’ airspace is now becoming a weekly reality, which presents added pressure and dangers which could potentially lead up to a major Russia-Western military confrontation. Lead NATO powers like Germany have of late also alleged Russian intelligence ‘sabotage’ campaigns involving drones near aviation […]

Saudis Threaten Retaliation After Alleged Houthi Drone Attack On Mecca Crosses “Red Line” Escalation in the Gulf area conflict certainly appeared overnight after Saudi Arabia accused Iran-backed Houthi rebels of targeting Mecca with a one-way attack drone, raising the risk of a deeper conflict as the kingdom’s East-West pipeline was knocked offline last week. Bloomberg quoted the Saudi-led coalition, which said an attack drone was […]